Market Power, NAIRU, and the Phillips Curve

The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New estimates for Germany

This paper provides new estimates of a time–varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by German unification using two alternative estimators, the Kalman Filter and the partially linear model. Estimating a standard Phillips curve, the sum of coefficients associated with expected inflation is far below unity, whatever measure of expected inflation rates is employed. ...

A Bounded Model of Time Variation in Trend Inflation, NAIRU and the Phillips Curve

In this paper, we develop a bivariate unobserved components model for inflation and unemployment. The unobserved components are trend inflation and the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Our model also incorporates a time-varying Phillips curve and time-varying inflation persistence. What sets this paper apart from the existing literature is that we do not use unbounded ra...

The Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve

Blanchflower and Oswald (1994) have argued that, in regional data, the level of unemployment is related to the fevel of wages. This result is at variance with an application of the original Phillips curve to regional data, which would predict that the change in wages ought to be related to the unemployment rate. On the other hand, there is considerable empirical support for the expectations-aug...

The Phillips Curve

Sectoral Phillips curves and the aggregate Phillips curve

Sector-level Phillips curves are estimated in French data. There is considerable heterogeneity across sectors, with vastly different estimates of the backward looking component of inflation and the duration of nominal rigidities. A multi-sector model of inflation dynamics is calibrated on the basis of these sectoral estimates. Aggregate inflation, simulated on the basis of heterogeneous sectors...